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The Age of Spiritual Machines
*****
Forget Star Trek
The Age of Spiritual Machines
is a 388 page hardcover by Ray Kurzweil published in 1999.
This is flat-out the most
intelligent and provocative look I’ve seen describing the development
and direction of artificial intelligence. Ray Kurzweil is a true
believer in AI, and he makes a convincing case for the emergence of a
superior intelligence. And he’s talking this century, folks, maybe
within the next four or five decades.
These are the key points of his
thesis, as I see them:
- Computational
power is growing exponentially and will continue doing so for the
foreseeable future. By 2020, the computational power of a $1,000
computer will be about equal to that of the human brain. After
that, computers leave us in the dust.
- Biological
evolution is slow and has taken us about as far as it can. It’s
already being replaced by technological evolution, the enhancement
(or replacement) of slow, biological processes by engineered
processes (e.g. neural networks).
- The mind is just
a complex machine. Issues such as consciousness, free will and the
soul can be endlessly debated, but fundamentally, we are just a
complex machine, currently the most complex one on the planet. But
that will change.
- Our bodies, also
a complex machine, can also be re-engineered or replaced. Great
strides are being made to simulate or replace our senses.
- Technological
innovation proceeds inexorably during the next few decades, rapidly
transforming our objects and ourselves. By the end of the century,
there will be virtually no distinction between human and artificial
intelligence.
This is a fascinating thesis, a real
mind-blower. Forget about a Star Trek or Star Wars future; that’s not
where we’re going. Well, maybe Star Trek. Consider the Borg with
personality and a sense of humor.
Robot: Mere Machine
to Transcendent Mind
****
A Fascinating But Troubling
Future
Robot:
Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind
is a 227page hardcover by Hans Moravec published in 1999.
Hans Moravec is both a practical
robotics engineer and a transcendent dreamer. Robot: Mere Machine to
Transcendent Mind is a work of pessimism delivered by an optimist.
It’s complex, compelling, naïve and frightening. Is this the world
we’re building for our children? I mean human children, not mind
children.
Robot
begins with a good overview of robotics, outlining the work of
cyber-pioneers such as Alan Turing, John McCarthy and Marvin Minsky;
then progressing into the late nineties. Moravec is a first-class
robotics scientist and engineer, explaining technical issues and
solutions in a concise, interesting manner. Good stuff, if you’re
interested in understanding robotics (why else would you be reading this
book?).
Moravec then projects the growth of
robotics and artificial intelligence employing a model similar to that
of Ray Kurzweil in The Age of Spiritual Machines. Both men base
this growth on the exponentially increasing power of inexpensive
computers, which they believe will match the computing power of the
human mind by approximately 2020. They both present strong arguments
that the human mind is fundamentally a complex machine; therefore, it’s
not a stretch to believe an equally complex mind can be developed in
silicon. Moravec then provides his assessment of robot capabilities for
each decade of the twenty-first century. It’s fascinating and not
unreasonable.
Okay, we all know the future is not
going to look like Star Trek, but Moravec’s vision for the coming
centuries is just too unbelievable: robot corporations in outer space,
some planet-sized, virtually all of humanity living on a dole provided
by taxing robot corporations, “execs” with almost supernatural powers …
you get the idea. Who knows – maybe he will be right – but these
speculations don’t fit well with the practical, science-based tone of
the bulk of the material.
Nevertheless, this is an excellent
work if you enjoy thinking about the near-future. Read Kurzweil and
Moravec back to back – throw in Flesh and Machines by Rodney
Brooks – and you’ll have a persuasive picture of what the next few
decades may hold.
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